Political Commentary - Showing a Keen Interest

Welcome to my blog - Life on the Edge of the Continentent by Frank in San Francisco

My blog discusses current affairs - political, social, economic, literature, the arts, theater, relationships, family, pets and peeves - as told from the point of view of a member of the baby boomer generation - a lawyer, entrepreneur, venture capitalist and hedge fund manager - and as an Independent voter.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

What economic risks do you see during 2010?

Macro-level Risks in 2010:

(1) Deleveraging leading to stag-deflation in the USA leading to slow GDP growth and slow re-employment;

(2) US federal government policy indecision (healthcare reform that creates a massive, unfunded entitlement program that does not address the root cause of rising healthcare costs but rather exacerbates the problem), policy inconsistencies (such as cap-and-trade tax burdens that are counter to other economic stimulus programs), and non-stimulative budget busting deficits (a spending freeze that is political window dressing on top of a massive increase in baseline spending levels);

(3) Rising imbalance between public sector (federal, state and local) spending and consumption and private sector capital investment and growth;

(4) A weak US dollar, continued quantitative easing, and beggar-thy-neighbor trade practices that may lead to trade wars with China and the European Union;

(5) Continued, politically motivated attacks on bankers, entrepreneurs and high income earners that borders on demagoguery;

(6) Lack of balance in media reporting on the economic policies of the White House and Congress (such as allowing the Administration to continue talking about jobs "saved or created" by economic programs that are demonstrably false - there is no effective way of measuring the number of jobs "saved" as contrasted to measuring "net new jobs created"); and

(7) Loss of credibility for the economic policies of the White House and Congress leading to a decline in consumer sentiment and lack of confidence in the Administration that further contributes to a decline in economic activity.

On a micro level, my personal risks for 2010: not playing enough squash, losing my hearing and my hair, and not getting home in time for dinner.

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